Amber Alert “The negative outlook on Barbados reflects the growing imbalances that the inconsistent fiscal and monetary policy mix has caused.” – Olga Kalinina, Standard & Poor’s Economist
In our view this is the most damning criticism of David Thompson’s performance as Minister of Finance since he assumed that office some sixteen months ago. If ever there was a vote of no confidence in Thompson’s ability to manage our economy, this is it. We are not surprised, because it is a criticism that our leader Mia Mottley has made of him without apology. She knows the importance of consistency in maintaining confidence in the Barbados economy.
No amount of sugar coating that the region is under fallout stress from the global economic downturn and that Barbados is not unlike other countries whose ratings have dropped can negate the full import of Ms. Kalinina’s words. The Barbados Labour Party has warned repeatedly of a government adrift and unsure of which path to take; of a government that waits far too long to take even reactionary decisions, much less pre-emptive or proactive ones. The Prime Minister’s ‘wait and see’ approach to economic management singles him out as a ditherer that the country cannot afford in these trying times. And what are these inconsistent policies of which Ms. Kalinina speaks?
Balanced budgets or deficits or both as the DLP prclaimed. Subsidies, no subsidies – yes subsidies! The government committed itself to a balanced budget and imposed the single greatest tax imposition on Barbadians in our economic history. This was done against a background of rising oil prices, which in his misguided wisdom the Prime Minister passed on to the productive sectors and the average Barbadian. Miss Mottley’s opposition to this policy has been well documented. With the implosion of the global financial markets, the Prime Minister’s response was to organize an economic talk shop two months after the Lehman Brothers collapsed.
This report is yet to be published, although he has commented on it as being a mid-term strategy. So back to the ‘wait and see’ stance. Then there was much ‘too and fro’ about whether we had or should have a stimulus package. School fences and a highway improvement project already on the cards were cited as evidence of such, amidst much continued ambivalence by the Prime Minister as to whether this was the course we should take. Under pressure to explain the fall in foreign reserves and the unrealistic revenue estimates contained in this year’s Estimates, the Prime Minister and Minister of Finance decided that he had in fact implemented a stimulus package.
Both Mia Mottley and Owen Arthur said then that the time for stimulus packages had already passed and that the failure to implement them sooner – now meant that we should be engaging in defensive measures and that a stabilization package is what is now required. We shall observe with keen interest whether such a package is contained in the Prime Minister’s Budget. While no country enjoys a downward adjustment of it’s rating or even its outlook, if there is a clear plan to implement measures that may lead to a downgrade, but yield improved results in the short and medium term results, then Ministers of Finance view them as a necessary evil.
When however, there is no plan or an inconsistent plan, then the chance of improvement becomes more remote as does an upward revision of the outlook. This is the unfortunate position in which we find ourselves today. The Prime Minister has no clear strategy for protecting the Barbados economy and no policies to ensure its growth. There is an awful sense of déjà vu hanging in the air.
Would it be too much to hope for – that the Prime Minister relieve himself of the Finance portfolio and save us all the certain hardship we shall face by his present insistence that he knows what he is doing?